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| 20.04.2022

Blog: Does success in business and politics depend on the genius of the decision makers or coincidences and trends?

Interpretations about economic and political reality are on a considerably more solid ground when based on evidence and research data. Causal inference is an effective tool: with the help of random assignment to treatments, we learn how resources can be used wisely. Even artificial intelligence and big data are only really useful when applied together with experimental methods.

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Topi Miettinen

A minister is inclined to say that we have the government's policy to thank for employment or economic growth, and rather not highlight the global economic development behind the growth.

When the company's operating profit increases, it is natural for the business leader to mention the change program that the manager himself has started instead of making the owners aware of the favorable development in the entire industry.

A critical and conscious voter or shareholder understands that an attribution bias is included in these statements. This means that events are interpreted as a consequence of decisions and the decision-maker's special characteristics rather than a situation or circumstances that the decision-maker cannot influence.

How, then, should one be able to distinguish a generally prevailing trend at the time when a decision is made from the real consequences of decisions, that is, the causal effects?

Read Professor Topi Miettinen's blog post (in Swedish): Beror framgång inom företag och politik på beslutsfattarnas genialitet eller lyckliga sammanträffanden och bakomliggande trender?